It is interesting to note Construction added 31,000 jobs in October vs approximately 13,000 jobs in September while Retail Trade added 43,800 jobs in October vs approximately 5,000 jobs in September.
Manufacturing? A big zero.
Tyler Durden raised a valid point when he questioned the data on Retail and Construction.
Let's look at Retail first. September Retail Sales rose an insignificant 0.1% vs 0.2% - 0.3% forecast. Despite the poor data Retail jobs surged almost 800% in October.
Then let's look at Construction. Raw materials have been declining. Framing lumber prices have declined 21% y-o-y.
New home sales fell 11.5% in September vs August (468,000 units vs 529,000 units).
Nevertheless Construction jobs surged more than 130% in October.
There seem to be some disconnect here as jobs continue to grow despite the poor new home sales data.
The following 2 charts perhaps will show some uncanny resemblance of what happened in 2006 and onwards.
Will history repeats itself and we could see a crash further down the road? It does seem likely given the slowing global growth. It's best we start preparing ourselves.
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