Thursday, December 31, 2015

LEGENDARY INVESTMENTS (LEG) H1 2015/2016 FINANCIAL YEAR

LEG reported a net profit after tax of 2.4 million Pounds, or an equivalent of 0.1 pence, itself a record.

Total investments increased by 231%, while assets and net assets grew 205% and 201% respectively.

Much of the value was driven by Virtual Stock (VS)/ VS valuation more than doubled to 58 million Pounds for the period. LEG's stake in VS now values 4.1 million Pounds.

Elsewhere, Amedeo Resources completed building its first rig while Bosques generation one and two pongamia had germinated and were producing saplings. Bosques is expected to benefit from the climate change accord achieved in Paris.

LEG has also acquired a 5.5% stake and an option over an additional 4.5% stake in Manas resources, a gold exploration company. While the price of gold has fallen in the last 3 years, a potential global debt crisis could see a revival in the demand for the precious metal.

LEG is very much a long term play. I still see the eventual listing of VS as a potential catalyst which could see LEG rising more than 300%. in the next 2 -3 years. Based on its net profit and stake's value in VS, LEG is indeed undervalued. However, investing in the UK AIM carries with it high risks and you are advised to do your own due diligence.

My disclosure: I own shares in LEG

2015 HAS ENDED. WHAT LIES AHEAD IN 2016?

2015 came and gone. There were some ups but there were many downs as well. It anything, 2015 lay the foundations for a crises ridden year ahead.

To recap, 2015 saw the following:

1) The Fed raised its first interest rates in almost a decade. However, this was against a backdrop of a worsening economy. Just as recently, the Chicago PMI fell to a worrisome 42.9, way below the expected 50.
2) The US government finally lifted the ban on oil export.
3) Depressed commodity prices, especially oil which threaten to unravel the debt market with defaults.
3) Towards the end of the year, we saw unprecedented sell off of high yield bond funds
4) The Baltic Index continue to test its lowest lows
5) Precious metals continued their third year of decline despite central banks and retail investors buying
6) The Dow and S&P fell 2.2% and  0.9% respectively in 2015 while the NASDAQ was up 5.7%. The broader Russell 2000 fell 5.7% for the year.
7) US$ stayed strong while other currencies, especially emerging economy currencies fell.
8) Major economies such as Brazil, Canada and Russia fell into recession. If anything, EU and Japan failed to inspire despite the QE implemented while China looked set to have a hard landing
9) Geopolitical tension rose to a new high in the Middle East and spilled over into the EU as terrorists became a clear and present threat.

Yes, the sequence of events leading to 2016 do not look too bright I am afraid. In the immediate future we could likely see the following:

1) Further distress in the shale oil industry which could cause a series of defaults
2) Unraveling of high yield bonds which could threaten the financial derivatives market
3) Q4 2015 could see earnings drop in many companies in the S&P 500 due to a host of issues, such as a strong US$, heavy debts and a worsening manufacturing sector
4) Further defaults are expected in China due to worsening economic situation and lower revenue from exports.
5) A US debt which could spiral out of control which could push the government 's debt past US$20 trillion (as at end of December 2015 the debt stood at US$18,8 trillion). On top of that, the debt levels of EU nations, Japan, China and emerging economies continue to rise.
6) All the above will culminate in a full blown global debt crisis which  
7) Geopolitical tension could turn for the worse, with an impending war involving nations

Certainly it makes good sense to take profit now while the stock market still hovers at near record levels. Retain some cash, while diversifying your portfolio into gold and silver mining stocks, gold and silver ETFs, and ETFs which short the markets (do need to exercise care in short ETFs as the Fed may surprise with a QE4. The other option is to invest directly in physical god and silver.

Monday, December 21, 2015

LEGENDARY INVESTMENT UPDATE

Legendary Investment (LEG) recently announced that Virtualstock (VS) has appointed Robert Knott, formerly National Director of  NHS Procurement  as Director of Healthcare and Public Sector.

As you  may well remember LEG holds a 7% stake in VS. VS had in July, 2015 entered into contract with NHS Teaching Hospital Trust.


I see this as a good progress and hope to see more contracts signed with NHS covering wider areas of procurement and distribution. 


LEG has always been in the 0.08 - 0.09 pence range, but we are seeing a lot more consistencies in the 0.11 - 0.14 range. 

LEG is still a good buy and hold story provided you have a wider time frame; ie: 3 - 5 years.

My disclosure: I own shares of LEG

Saturday, December 19, 2015

PPHM Q2 RESULTS

PPHM recently announced their Q2 results:

1) The Sunrise Phase 3 Trial is now more than 90% enrolled, which put it in line for a first look-in, possibly  in Q1 2016 and a second look-in in mid 2016. final unblinding of results could take place in late 2016.

2) The Phase 2/3 Trial for breast cancer is expected to start at the end of 2015, while the Phase 2 Trial lung cancer trail combining Bavituximab and AZN's Durvalumad could start in early 2016.

3) Phase 1 Trials combining Bavituximab and Durvalumab for multiple tumours are expected to start later in 2016.

4) Avid Bioservices recorded a revenue growth of 52% in Q2 this year vs Q2 last year. YTD revenue increased 61% vs last year.

5) Current backlog of order have reached US$49 million. PPHM increased its revenue forecast in the current financial year to US$35 million - US$40 million from US$30 million - US$35 million previously.

6) The new manufacturing facility is finally ready to commence manufacturing. Armed with state of the art equipment, the new facility could easily double Avid Bioservices capacity. It has the potential to generate another US$40 million revenue once manufacturing goes into full swing.

2016 could be the defining year for PPHM. Increasingly, many medical professionals and researchers are acknowledging the role PS in blocking our immune system from functioning effectively. And Bavituximab stands as the only PS targeting drug with the capability to counter-react against PS.  I see a bright future ahead.

My disclosure: I own shares of PPHM.  

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

FINALLY THE FED HAS DONE IT!

Finally the Fed has raised the interest rate by 25 basis point. The Fed even mentioned that unemployment numbers were good and the economy was sound. They even forecast a 25 basis point rate increase in every quarter in 2016. But nothing could be further than the truth. Here's why:

1) An interest rate hike will push the value of the US$ upwards. So prepare to see US trade deficit increase and US made goods more expensive. This will result in further manufacturing slowdown. The November PMI is just barely above the 50 level at 51.3 while the ISM manufacturing data showed a reading of 48.6. Incidentally the Chinese Yuan has continued to depreciate vs the US$. So I expect to see further reduction of imports from the US in China, thus widening the trade deficit.

2) Yes, jobs growth have been fantastic - but at the expense of manufacturing jobs. Low paying jobs in the services sector are substituting high paying manufacturing jobs. So the volume matters less as more people are earning less. This could impact consumption further down the road. The unemployment data exclude people who have left the work force or gave up on finding any employment. If these were taken into account, the number of unemployment could see as high as 9.9% (The U-6 data). The unemployment rate is actually far worse than the Fed perceives.

3) There was a sell off in High Yield Bonds with two funds (Third Avenue and Stone Lion) halting further redemptions which prompted Carl Ichan to warn that a meltdown is coming. In fact the performance of the majority of  High Yield Bond funds are already in negative territory.

Most High Yield Bond funds invest in the depressed energy, mining and industrial sectors. The recent rate hike would put pressure on major shale oil producers as the cost of refinancing increases. Add in a depressed oil price and many could be in distress in coming weeks. A total of 44 shale oil producers are utlising 83 cents per dollar of cash flow to pay interests on debts. Should these companies fail it could threaten a combined US$200B - US$250B worth of debt held by shale oil companies. This could unravel the financial markets.

4) The US is sitting on a debt time bomb. Increase in interest rate just increase the burden of payment. The Total US debt stands at US$58T, more than 300% of its GDP. Global debt is about US$230T  which is also more than 300% of global GDP. Since 2007, global debt has increased more than 200%. Total global financial derivatives stands at US$700T (lowest estimate) which is more than the US$506T total during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.    

So the unraveling of bonds could impact the financial derivatives market, which could result in a full blown crisis, much worse than the 2008 crisis

The interest rate hike would push many companies worldwide into default especially those from the EM which borrowed US$ to fund their expansion, as their currencies fall in value vs the US$.

And if you've not read about it, auto dealers are offering cheap loans to buyers, and many of the loans could be of sub prime quality. The total auto loans just exceeded US$1T.

5) Home sales. The Fed touted the increase in home sales as a strong indicator for the economy. Well let's see if there's any increase in home sales after the interest rate hike. More likely, buyers are rushing to commit before the interest rate hike.

6) S&P 500 companies are already in earning recession. In 2014 the S&P 500 companies borrowed more money to buy back shares and paid dividends than their earnings. The ratio: US$1.27 of debt vs US$1.00 of earnings. Yet the S&P is trading at multi year highs.

Even the NASDAQ big 4, the FANG are trading at astronomical values. Facebook is trading at a PE of 107.28, Amazon, a PE of 980.29, Netflix, a PE of 372.02, and Google, a PE of 35.66. Talk about high valuations! In fact the 4 have almost the same marketcap of the DAX 30 companies combined!

7) The Baltic Index just hit a record low at 471 due to the collapse of the price of commodities, compared that to its height of more than 10,000 in 2007- 2008. If the Baltic Index cannot be a good gauge of global trade then I do not know what is.

All the above points to a potential crash of epic proportions.

These are some of the things which you can do:

Look into ETFs that short the market indices. (Please do your own research). The pivot point will be in Q1 2016 during the earnings period and potential default in debt by major shale oil producers.

Invest in Gold and Silver ETFs and mining companies. (Please do your own research). The strength of the US$ will propel the price of Gold and Silver lower, making the investment cheap as a hedge. Interestingly, Goldman and HSBC who were both bearish on Gold, bought more than 7 tons of the metal in August, 2015. China, Russia and India continue to accumulate Gold. Now, if it is such a bad investment why are the bankers and central bankers buying? Look at the COMEX. Amount of Gold sold is leveraged more than 300 to 1 physical ounce of Gold.

Buy physical Gold and Silver. Invest in other hard assets such as land.

The above are entirely my opinion. Always remember to do your own research.




Saturday, December 5, 2015

WITH NOVEMBER NFP EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS A RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER LOOKS SET

Well, with November Non-Farm Payroll exceeding expectations at 211,000 jobs, and a revision in October that was higher than the previous; ie 298,000 jobs vs 271,000 prior, it looks set that the Federal Reserve will raise its first interest rate in almost a decade in December.

This is against a background of an ISM Manufacturing Index that fell below 50 in November at 48.6, which is a signal of a contraction, an escalating debt in the US which totaled more than US$58T (government, corporations and households), and a widening trade deficit, due to the continued strength of the US$.

What will be the impact on various sectors of the economy? What about the global economy?

Below are my summation of what could happen in the next few months:

1) US$ Index could go higher amidst QE in EU and Japan, and interest rates easing in many countries in Asia. This could further impact US exports and US trade deficit could grow wider

2) A stronger US$ could impact earnings of multi nationals in terms of US$. This could push the earning of major multinational in the S&P 500 companies into negative growth territory, It seems likely that the S&P 500 could see its earnings recession being extended for the next two quarters as global economy continue to deteriorate. And don't forget, the S&P 500 companies took in more debts than ever for dividends and share buybacks in the last few years. So earnings will be squeezed on both fronts

3) The burden of debt repayment will increase throughout the world, especially for governments and corporations in emerging markets which borrowed in US$. Coupled with the depreciation in the local currencies, many could see their budget stretched. In fact, it is anticipated that China which has US$16T in corporate debts, could face a string of defaults. So far 6 major corporations have failed to meet interest payments on their respective bonds and another 5 have been identified as potentially missing their interest payments in the coming months.

On the US front, the biggest threat would be the default by US shale oil companies which could potentially put US$250B worth of bonds at risk. According to the EIA, some 44 shale oil companies use $0.83 of every US$1.00 they took in to pay off their debt commitments. And herein lies the danger of default as OPEC failed to reach an agreement to lower production in their meeting in Vienna on December 4, which immediately sent oil price further south. Increase in interest rate will only burden these companies as refinancing becomes more expensive and private equity funds shun further investments.

4) REITs which rely on debts to fund acquisitions could find borrowing costs higher and thus impact upon the distributable income to unit holders

5) What of the US government's US$18T? Already tax revenue is falling short of expenditure. Will increase in interest rate result in more borrowings in order to pay off the ever increasing debt level?

In my opinion, despite the assurance by the Federal Reserve, I tend to agree with Citibank's assessment that global recession risks have just increased. This will be followed by a debt crisis of epic proportions which could make the 2008 Financial Crisis seem like child's play.



Tuesday, December 1, 2015

FEDERAL RESERVE JUST HAVE A TOUGHER DECISION ON INTEREST RATE HIKE


Two interesting developments:

US ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48.6 last night
Atlanta Federal reserve cuts its Q4 US GDP growth rate to 1.4% from 1.8%

A manufacturing index below 50 means contraction. This could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to have a modest hike in interest rate in December or none at all.

If no hike, then Emerging markets will breathe a sigh of relief.

But... if could mean kicking the can further down the road.



US TOTAL DEBT NOW: US$18.827T!

In a report by ZeroHedge, US public debt has reached an unprecedented US$18.827T!

According to the report, it just 4 weeks, the US has accumulated a total of  US$674B in just November alone!

Now for those who articulated that US will start a tightening cycle with interest rates increase every quarter, you better think again.

How can further increase in interest rates  help improve the US debt payment and lower its debt burden?

It is a global economy where all the economies of the world are interconnected. How can the US economy power ahead amidst an interest rates increase, by claiming that the US economy is fully decoupled from the rest of the world?

Won't an increase in interest rates cause the US$ to spike further thereby hurting the exports of US made goods? Widen the trade deficit? Impose burden of debt among US corporations which went on a borrowing binge during the last few years? Affect US companies earnings and therefore future job growth?

To know that these are the high flying economists and analysts of big banks and financial institutions - is indeed a sad reflection of their poor acknowledgement of fundamentals.

And for all the shortfall, it is always easy to blame the Federal Reserve for failing to stop QE, but what about the banks and financial institutions and corporations' disproportionate increase in leverage relative to their earnings? The Federal Reserve has to shoulder some of the blame, but so must the greedy corporations too, in regard to the failure of QE.

The above is just my opinion.