According to the EIA, US shale oil production could see a drop of 118,000 bopd in December.
Taking into consideration that US shale oil production has dropped approximately 500,000 bopd from April to October (reported by oilprice.com on 25 October), we could potentially see a combined drop of more than 600,000 bopd in shale oil production as we enter into 2016.
This far surpassed Citigroup's estimated drop of 500,000 bopd by the end of the year. The drop could be more pronounced as we enter Q1 2016. This is supported by the fact that US rigs count has dropped for the last 10 weeks, and further capex has been differed or cancelled.
Will continued drop in US production push oil price northwards?
I am inclined to believe so, even with Iran coming into the picture. This is because Iranian oil needs investment from major oil companies to kickstart its oil ambition and right now all oil majors have no intention to commit further capex in either oil exploration or oil field development.
According to Marketwatch (reported on 10 November), more than US$200 billion of energy projects have been cancelled thus far. So I believe it is unlikely that Iran would be able to secure enough investments to develop its oil fields in order for it to meet its targeted production in 2016.
In such a scenario, oil price could finally stabilise. I believe by Q1 2016, we could see oil price above US$50 a barrel.
The above is just my opinion. You are encouraged to do your own research.
Link: http://www.kallanishenergy.com/2015/11/11/shale-oil-production-drop-118000-bpd-eia/
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