Friday, July 29, 2016

US GDP GREW WORSE THAN EXPECTED AND QE4 WITH NIRP COULD BE COMING

US GDP grew a paltry 1.2% in Q2 2016 with Q1 GDP being revised down to 0.8% from 1.1% earlier.
In a worst reading of Q2 GDP since 2010, we saw the US$ tanking which boosted the price of precious metals and crude oil and the S&P touching an all time high! The insanity in the price movement of the S&P knows no bounds as expectations of quarterly earnings continue to deteriorate in Q2. Despite the increase in drilling rigs count, crude oil climbed. I would expect crude oil to trend downwards in the coming weeks as we saw the continual buildup of gasoline and storage at Cushing despite this being the peak summer period. If anything, it points to fact that US citizens have far less to spend than the ordinary summer months, and this could reflect on another disappointing GDP data in Q3.
And about that mind blowing June jobs report, be prepared that it could be revised lower too.

I think The Fed is aware of this too, therefore its unwillingness to raise interest rates although it did say that the short term risks have diminished. Let's face the fact, with slowing GDP growth, any rate hike will be devastating for the highly leveraged shale oil plays, the corporations which borrowed trillions of US$ on the cheap and a struggling US government, burdened by huge deficit spending and an escalating debt which could reach US$20 trillion by the end of the year. On top of that, we have a trillion each in consumer debts, student loans and auto loans. Remember the car sales that kept rising higher and higher? Well, its driven substantially by subprime car loans.

Against such a backdrop, I think QE4 and NIRP could be coming to the US. Here's what Zerohedge reported:

As of February, Yellen had not “fully investigated” the legal issues of negative rates.
As of May, Yellen was unwilling to state the Fed had legal authority to go negative.
As of June, Yellen had no doubt the Fed could legally go negative.
So you see, the legality of NIRP is resolved. The Fed could use NIRP if the Fed deems fit.
If that happens the monetary debasement could be huge.
If you have not owned any precious metals and related mining stocks, perhaps you should really consider it before all hell breaks loose. If that happens many will be priced beyond your reach.
The above is just my opinion.

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