Wednesday, July 27, 2016

BEHIND THE SMOKE AND MIRRORS - MY LIST OF TICKING TIME BOMBS

The Fed once again attempted to talk up the dollar by indicating that an interest rate hike is in the horizon. Well the dollar did rise but fell further into the red soon after... perhaps investors are no longer buying the Fed's words or the Fed has entirely lost their credibility and investors now decide to ignore the noise.
Gold and silver had one of their best one day gain since BREXIT, but the bullion banks will monkey-hammer the precious metals towards the announcement of the US GDP.
However, there could be some events which will mitigate the pressure on gold and silver going into Friday night as there will be the announcement from the BOJ and the EU's GDP report due out on the same day.
On the banking front,several banks in Portugal are in need of additional funding due to NPLs while Deutsche Bank reported earnings that were 98% down from the year earlier.
Here are my lists of ticking time bombs in the world:
1) EU banks
2) Japanese economy and debt
3) US and China's debt
4) China's economy slowdown
5) EU terrorist attacks
6) EU migration crisis
7) US shale oil debt implosion
8) Negative global bond yields
9) Escalating geopolitical conflict in Middle East and South China Seas
The US Presidential Election results could be a potential for riot as the US government militarise their police force, rumours of FEMA camps for "citizens imprisonment" and movement of military and armoured vehicles nationwide.
One black swan event could be what Turkey will do next.
As one commentator puts it at King World News, if there is a financial crisis the central bankers will print more money, but it will be game over when the bond market implodes because no one would buy any bonds, and without the issue of bonds, the central bankers could not print more money.
Ex-PIMCO boss, Bill Gross (ex- bond king) has mentioned time and again the possibility of a bond market implosion due to the negative yields while Jeff Gundlach (emerging bond king) is shunning bonds by putting his money into gold.
While I have written much about precious metals, one other asset class that promises respectable returns are REITs. With global interest rates likely to remain low, the pressure for the increase in funding cost is almost non-existent, therefore REITs with strong balance sheet will likely acquire assets on the cheap as price of properties crashes. My favourite are Singapore REITs as I see stability in the Singapore Dollar vs other fiat currencies. The other incentive being the tax free element on income distribution.
If you are selecting REITs, look for the strong sponsors such as Capitaland, City Development, Frasers Group and Mapletree Group. But please do you own research before investing.

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