Saturday, April 1, 2017

WALL STREET'S SMOKE AND MIRRORS

During the Presidential Elections campaign, all the bankers were saying how bad Trump will be for the economy. then Trump got elected and in the wee hours the Dow fell by almost 800 points. Just as quickly the bankers changed the narrative saying Trump's plans will reflate the economy and GDP could grow 3% - 4% under Trump and of course since that day all the indices have been reaching record levels. Never mind the fact that all other hard economic data were pointing to a weakening economy.
In the past week, despite having a majority representation in the House, the Republicans failed to repeal and replace Obamacare. The stock market tanked, and within hours the bankers quickly changed the narrative that the healthcare vote was not important because what Wall Street wants was the tax reforms. And since healthcare was out of the way,, the administration can now focused on tax reforms. And the stock market rose
Never mind that the healthcare plan carries with it tax credits which was part of the overall tax reform plan.
Never mind the fact that despite the majority in the House, the Republicans failed to reach a consensus.
Never mind the failure of the healthcare plan would also result in a failure to save the government approximately US$500B
Never mind the fact that the US debt ceiling suspension has expired and the government will run out of cash by end of April. And thus far no one has even consider the Democrats' threat that they will force a government shutdown unless Trump withdraws the ban on immigration from certain countries and stop building the border wall. The Freedom Caucus from the Republicans will likely oppose raising the debt ceiling.
Never mind that unfunded liabilities in pension funds all across the US has now reached US$1.9T vs just US$292B in 2007.
Never mind the rising delinquencies in Student and Auto Loans, both of which carries total loan amounts of more than US$1T each.Never mind that the Border Tax proposed by Speaker Ryan will add to inflationary pressure among the consumers. Retailers are already falling like flies across US. Why should US consumers buy from US based retailers if the Border Tax is sure to raise prices even more? They might as well buy online from overseas retailers. I expect to see more layoffs from the retail sector if the plan pushes through.
Never mind that the powerful Koch Brothers and US retailers are against the Border Tax. Should the Border Tax fails to garner any votes just like the healthcare plan, then the government will also fail to realise an extra US$1T in tax receipts. So how will the government finance the US$1T infrastructure plan? I would expect another major sell off.
And lastly, never mind that the the divergence of hard data vs soft data has never been wider (See chart. Source: Zerohedge)

No comments:

Post a Comment