Friday, October 21, 2016

WHY GOLD IS STILL HOLDING UP DESPITE STRONG US$

I've been trying to understand why gold is holding up well despite strength in US$. Here's what I found out and possible reasons to that effect:
1) Fed is talking up the US$ despite poor economic data. Atlanta Fed GDP Now slashed Q3 forecast by 50% (1.9% from 3.8%). Reason: Central banks have been dumping US Treasuries at the highest rate. Look at the chart below (Source: Zerohedge). I believe the talk about rate hike is to negate any fall in the value of the US$ caused by the dumping. Is the dumping a sign that central banks around the world are losing confidence in the US$ as the US becomes more and more heavily indebted? 

  

2) The bullion banks which took down gold during the last week of September and first week of October are massively covering their shorts because if central banks continue to dump US Treasuries the US$ will tank. Look at the trend on the US$ (Source: KWN, Sentiment Trader). Hedgers are unwinding their positions in US$ If this continues US$ could trend lower and gold will trend higher













3) Here's an interesting chart that overlays the 1970s bull market and the 2000-2016 current trend in price of gold (Source: KWN).














As news on the election intensify, coupled with more wikileaks, the atmosphere of uncertainty and nervousness will heighten. Even now, polls are indicating that majority of Americans are sick of corruption and the elitists and fearful of the election being rigged.

Gold could trend higher going into the election.

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