Monday, October 12, 2015

TAKING A LONG TERM VIEW ON GOLD MINING COMPANIES

I have written about buying gold mining companies recently. But such investments must take a long term view. Gold will always be a hedge against potential crisis or inflation. In the near term, gold price could be trending down or trade within a tight band. But in the longer term, gold could rise owing to these few factors:

1) A potential Asian Debt Crisis originating in China and affecting the whole of Asia
2) A  China recession which prevents the Federal Reserve from raising further rates. A China recession can turn into a global recession
3) Amidst QE in Japan and EU, and a low interest rate policy across Asia, the world is awash with liquidity, and this does not allow the Federal Reserve to raise rates consecutively every quarter because this will price US goods out of the market. But the danger, when the market is awash with liquidity and if output continues to lag, coupled with depressed currencies, the world is ripe for a super inflation.

Any of the 3 scenarios could happen. So at least diversify your portfolio into some gold mining companies because in precisely those moments, gold will shine. At the most, 10% - 15% of your portfolio should include gold mining companies.

The above is just my opinion. You are encouraged to do your own research.


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