Saturday, January 21, 2017

TRUMP'S AMERICA FIRST POLICY

Watching the inauguration speech, We can surmise the following:
1) Policies will aim to protect America's interests first
2) It will be Buy American and Hire Americans first
3) Repair existing and build new infrastructures
So looks like it will be a policy that is geared towards protectionism rather than globalisation in which case, the tariffs or border taxation becomes real.
Some economists say that a border tax will make the US$ stronger.
If the intention of tariffs is to narrow the trade deficit, a stronger US$ could make imports cheaper but exports could also fall, as US made goods become more expensive. Also a strong US$ will likely impact upon the earnings of major S&P companies of which 50% are derived from foreign earnings.
As I said in previous posts, imposing tariffs on imported goods could drive up inflation in the US as the US cannot possibly manufacture all it conumes.
On infrastructure I still maintain my position as to where is the source of money? From savings by rolling back government agencies? Or more debt? It remains to be seen how this will be played out.
Meanwhile Zerohedge reported that Chinese investors are pulling out of bitcoin and piling into gold backed ETFs in China. Should this become an investment frenzy it could bode well for both gold, silver and related miners.
Since the Fed decision to hike interest rate, gold has been up 6 weeks in a row.
It pays to watch Trump's policies as he starts his tenure in the White House.

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