Wednesday, September 7, 2016

HERE WE GO AGAIN. iT'S AUTO LOANS THIS TIME

Forget about the mortgage subprime crisis. Next crisis to erupt could be the auto loans crisis.
To date, auto loan has surpassed US$1T. Below are some important points taken from Zerohedge:
In July, 60 day subprime loan delinquencies were up 13 percent on a month-over-month basis and were up 17 percent compared to the same month last year.
Prime delinquencies were up 12 percent on a month-over-month basis and were up 21 percent compared to the same month last year.
The following comes from USA Today…
In a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Ford reported in the first half of this year it allowed $449 million for credit losses, a 34% increase from the first half of 2015.
General Motors reported in a similar filing that it set aside $864 million for credit losses in that same period of 2016, up 14% from a year earlier.
Between Ford and GM they have set aside a whopping US$1.3B for credit losses.
This is pure insanity. It goes to show that the consumer spending, especially in the autos are driven by reckless lending.
I will stay away from the auto stocks as the data seems to suggest that a bubble could burst in the coming months. Why? Because auto sales are dropping and inventories are rising. Even Ford acknowledged that the sales have reached a plateau. Can't remember which news website I read it from, but the author nailed it when he said "A plateau is a cliff on one side and another cliff on the other side."

No comments:

Post a Comment