US oil rigs count continue to fall for the second consecutive week to 652 on the week ending September 11, 2015.
Amidst a low oil price environment, and a looming credit line revision by major banks in the US, we can expect continued pressure on US shale oil companies. We could potentially see several more companies filing for bankruptcy protection.
While the US has overcome several major hurdles in supporting the Iran deal, hardliners in Iran are rallying against the deal.
Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-16/iran-nuke-feud-shifts-to-tehran-as-hardliners-push-to-sink-deal
Should the hardliners win, then that will throw a spanner in the works where the deal is concerned.
So where will oil be in the coming months?
I still see it in the sub US$50 in the immediate term.
Further support could come in the continued fall in US oil supply and projected decline in production. Production could take a hit in coming months due the following factors:
1) High depletion rate in wells coupled with slowdown in drilling activities (fall in rigs count) will put the brakes on production
2) Financial distress due to overwhelming debt among shale oil companies. Unable to fund further activities due to insufficient funding or bankruptcy
3) Low oil price will continue to discourage producers from expanding their capex. if fact, most have cut their capex for the next 12 months, and reduce their workforce
Despite the above, oil price is unlikely to return to more then US$80 per barrel in 2016 due to the likelihood of China entering into a recession. The next few months will provide indications whether China is heading towards that direction.
Taking all the above into consideration, I would say that oil could hover in the US$50 - US$60 per barrel towards year end.
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
WILL CHINA DEVALUE ITS YUAN?
CNBC reported that China could devalue ts Yuan by 15% - 20%. How will it impact on Asia's currencies? Will spark a currency war among Asian countries?
Read it here: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/16/why-chinas-yuan-may-be-set-for-15-devaluation.html
Read it here: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/16/why-chinas-yuan-may-be-set-for-15-devaluation.html
Thursday, September 10, 2015
PPHM Q1 FY2016 RESULTS
Revenue grew 76.0% vs Q1 FY2015
Loss widened by 6.7% vs Q1 FY2015
EPS stagnant at -US$0.08, same as Q1 FY2015
Current Ratio 2.03
Debt to Equity Ratio 0.40
Key takeaways from Conference Call:
1) Revenue achieved record high in Q1 FY2016.
2) US$42 million in manufacturing back log
3) New manufacturing facility has capacity to generate up to US$40 million in revenue
4) Recruitment for Sunrise Phase III Trial on track to complete by year end 2015
5) Possible first look in of Sunrise Phase III Trial in first half of 2016 and second lookin by mid year 2016
6) Breast Cancer Phase II/III Trial to begin by end of 2015
7) Lung Cancer Phase II Trial combining Bavituximab and BMY's Opdivo to begin by end of 2015
8) Design stage for the trial combining Bavituximab and AZN's Durvalumab
From the look of things, I believe the first few months of 2016 have a telling effect on the Share Price. Things will move very fast from there on.
My disclosure: I won shares of PPHM.
Loss widened by 6.7% vs Q1 FY2015
EPS stagnant at -US$0.08, same as Q1 FY2015
Current Ratio 2.03
Debt to Equity Ratio 0.40
Key takeaways from Conference Call:
1) Revenue achieved record high in Q1 FY2016.
2) US$42 million in manufacturing back log
3) New manufacturing facility has capacity to generate up to US$40 million in revenue
4) Recruitment for Sunrise Phase III Trial on track to complete by year end 2015
5) Possible first look in of Sunrise Phase III Trial in first half of 2016 and second lookin by mid year 2016
6) Breast Cancer Phase II/III Trial to begin by end of 2015
7) Lung Cancer Phase II Trial combining Bavituximab and BMY's Opdivo to begin by end of 2015
8) Design stage for the trial combining Bavituximab and AZN's Durvalumab
From the look of things, I believe the first few months of 2016 have a telling effect on the Share Price. Things will move very fast from there on.
My disclosure: I won shares of PPHM.
US COULD LOSE 500,000 BOPD BY YEAR END
An interesting article by Bloomberg.
This could provide some support to oil price.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/u-s-oil-producers-may-lose-500-000-barrels-a-day-on-funding-gap
This could provide some support to oil price.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/u-s-oil-producers-may-lose-500-000-barrels-a-day-on-funding-gap
WHAT MATTERS IS THE NET PROFIT PER BARREL OF OIL
We have read in many written article how US shale oil companies are revolutionising the extraction of tight oil plays. Despite the continuing slump in oil price, many of the major shale oil companies touted how they are improving the productivity per rig, the efficiency in drilling techniques which reduce the number of man days, and how technology improved the the overall cost structure.
But are these new found ways improving the net profit per barrel of oil? Are they cash flow positive or negative. Even when oil was trading at more than US$100 many of these companies were hardly generating positive cashflows. So how would they fare at today's oil price?
This article offers an insightful view of how shale oil companies could be in deeper trouble than what the analysts and oil barons say.
Link: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Biggest-Red-Herring-In-US-Shale.html
But are these new found ways improving the net profit per barrel of oil? Are they cash flow positive or negative. Even when oil was trading at more than US$100 many of these companies were hardly generating positive cashflows. So how would they fare at today's oil price?
This article offers an insightful view of how shale oil companies could be in deeper trouble than what the analysts and oil barons say.
Link: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Biggest-Red-Herring-In-US-Shale.html
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
LGO DRILLING UPDATE
LGO recently announced that the last of its 2015 development wells, GY678 has reached TD. A ttal of 679 feet of net oil pay was encountered, comprising of 199 feet at the Goudron Sandstones and another 480 feet at the C-Sands.
My disclosure: I own shares of LGO.
My disclosure: I own shares of LGO.
PPHM UPDATE
Recent clinical data by PPHM suggests that combined Bavituximab - Anti PDL-1 therapies enhance immune responses.
Tumour cells has a layer of protein called phosphatidylserine (PS) which masks the tumour cells and inhibits their recognition by the immune system. Bavituximab binds to the PS therefore blocking it along with its immunosuppressive action, thus enhancing anti-tumour immune responses.
Dr Jeff T Hutchins, Vice President of preclinical research at PPHM, presented results of Bavituximab's performance in several preclinical and clinical studies.
Tumours develop strategies to evade its detection by the immune system, creating an immunosuppresive microenvironment that allows them to survive and proliferate. Bavituximab acts to disrupt the tumours' immunosuppresive strategies while enhancing immune activity against tumours. Bavituximab induces an increase in tumour infiltrating CD8+ T cells (cytotoxic T cells) and cytokines, while decrease the levels of macrophages and myeloid cells that allows tumours to remain undetected by the immune system.
One of PPHM's studies showed that patients with low PD-L1 or PD-1 expression on infiltrating tumour immune cells exhibited enhanced immune activation after Bavituximab administration. Using animal models of of multiple tumour types, researchers found that combining Bavituximab with anti PD-1 antibodies allowed complete tumour regression in some cases.
This goes to show the importance of Bavituximab as an anti PS targeting agent and it is now wonder that MSK (Memorial Sloan Kettering ) and AZN (Astrazeneca) are now working in collaboration with PPHM.
On another front, Starpharma is developing an enhanced form of Docetexal known as DEP Docetaxel. In preclinical studies, DEP has shown to have substantially better afficacy and lower toxicity.
For the uninitiated, PPHM is undergoing a Phase III Sunrise Trial combining Bavituximab and Docetaxel and incidently, AZN has just signed a deal with Starpharma on the continued development of DEP.
AZN signing a deal with Starpharma and PPHM seems to suggest that AZN is pursuing on all angles in the treatment of tumours.
My disclosure: I own shares of PPHM
Tumour cells has a layer of protein called phosphatidylserine (PS) which masks the tumour cells and inhibits their recognition by the immune system. Bavituximab binds to the PS therefore blocking it along with its immunosuppressive action, thus enhancing anti-tumour immune responses.
Dr Jeff T Hutchins, Vice President of preclinical research at PPHM, presented results of Bavituximab's performance in several preclinical and clinical studies.
Tumours develop strategies to evade its detection by the immune system, creating an immunosuppresive microenvironment that allows them to survive and proliferate. Bavituximab acts to disrupt the tumours' immunosuppresive strategies while enhancing immune activity against tumours. Bavituximab induces an increase in tumour infiltrating CD8+ T cells (cytotoxic T cells) and cytokines, while decrease the levels of macrophages and myeloid cells that allows tumours to remain undetected by the immune system.
One of PPHM's studies showed that patients with low PD-L1 or PD-1 expression on infiltrating tumour immune cells exhibited enhanced immune activation after Bavituximab administration. Using animal models of of multiple tumour types, researchers found that combining Bavituximab with anti PD-1 antibodies allowed complete tumour regression in some cases.
This goes to show the importance of Bavituximab as an anti PS targeting agent and it is now wonder that MSK (Memorial Sloan Kettering ) and AZN (Astrazeneca) are now working in collaboration with PPHM.
On another front, Starpharma is developing an enhanced form of Docetexal known as DEP Docetaxel. In preclinical studies, DEP has shown to have substantially better afficacy and lower toxicity.
For the uninitiated, PPHM is undergoing a Phase III Sunrise Trial combining Bavituximab and Docetaxel and incidently, AZN has just signed a deal with Starpharma on the continued development of DEP.
AZN signing a deal with Starpharma and PPHM seems to suggest that AZN is pursuing on all angles in the treatment of tumours.
My disclosure: I own shares of PPHM
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