LGO today announced that the third well of Pad 4, GY674 encountered 769 feet of net oil pay, of which 492 ft of net oil pay was encountered on the Goudron Sands and another 277 ft of net oil pay in the deeper C-Sands.
A poster by the name of Phil, put it on the LGO board, This is the best net pay to be discovered in the C-Sands. The combined net pay from the 3 wells on Pad 4 EXCEEDS the total net pay of all the 8 wells drilled in 2014 (2,062 ft vs 1,866 ft)
This is very good news indeed. It goes to show that the Goudron oilfield is not only getting larger but deeper as well.
All the wells on Pad 4 have been cased and production will start in the next few weeks.
Lest we forget, the long awaited CPR will be announced in the next two weeks.
My disclosure: I am long LGO.
Thursday, June 11, 2015
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
UKOG ANNOUNCED PLACEMENT OF 266,666,667 NEW SHARES TO RAISE 6 MILLION POUNDS
Yesterday UKOG announced it raised 6 million Pounds by the placing 266,66,667 new shares at 2.25 pence a piece.
Originally, the target was to raise 4.5 million Pounds via the placement of 200 million new shares but it seemed the placement was oversubscribed. On top of that the subscription was done inside of an hour upon announcement, beating the 24 hour period alotted. This means that there are new investors coming abroad and they are fully researched on the potential of UKOG otherwise the placement would not have been snapped out within the hour. Shares of UKOG is in DEMAND.
According to the press release, the 6 million Pounds will be used for the following:
1) To further the company's interest in Horse Hill and the Weald Basin
2) To invest into new oil and gas companies that fall within the company's investment strategy
3) For general purposes
1) is interesting. It means that the company may be increasing its stake in Horse Hill by buying out a partner. With the potential oil in place measuring up to 15 billion barrels, it would mean that UKOG will have a bigger share of the bounty
2) means that UKOG may be acquiring some stakes in existing and productive oil fields within the Weald Basin. This should potentially increase its revenue base.
In my opinion, some parts of the money will be used to conduct the flow test at Horse Hill and perhaps to start the first drill at Isle of Wight as its licence will expire on 31 January, 2016.
In Horse Hill, it is fortunate that NUTECH and Schlumberger are assisting UKOG in determining the right spot from which to conduct the flow test.
The share price might fall a bit at the open on Thursday, 11 June, 2015, but I think it should recover strongly as UKOG reveals in detail its intentions.
My disclosure: I am long UKOG.
Originally, the target was to raise 4.5 million Pounds via the placement of 200 million new shares but it seemed the placement was oversubscribed. On top of that the subscription was done inside of an hour upon announcement, beating the 24 hour period alotted. This means that there are new investors coming abroad and they are fully researched on the potential of UKOG otherwise the placement would not have been snapped out within the hour. Shares of UKOG is in DEMAND.
According to the press release, the 6 million Pounds will be used for the following:
1) To further the company's interest in Horse Hill and the Weald Basin
2) To invest into new oil and gas companies that fall within the company's investment strategy
3) For general purposes
1) is interesting. It means that the company may be increasing its stake in Horse Hill by buying out a partner. With the potential oil in place measuring up to 15 billion barrels, it would mean that UKOG will have a bigger share of the bounty
2) means that UKOG may be acquiring some stakes in existing and productive oil fields within the Weald Basin. This should potentially increase its revenue base.
In my opinion, some parts of the money will be used to conduct the flow test at Horse Hill and perhaps to start the first drill at Isle of Wight as its licence will expire on 31 January, 2016.
In Horse Hill, it is fortunate that NUTECH and Schlumberger are assisting UKOG in determining the right spot from which to conduct the flow test.
The share price might fall a bit at the open on Thursday, 11 June, 2015, but I think it should recover strongly as UKOG reveals in detail its intentions.
My disclosure: I am long UKOG.
Monday, June 8, 2015
Friday, June 5, 2015
UKOG REVISED ESTIMATE OF OIL IN PLACE
Yesterday UKOG requested for voluntary suspension which caught many off guard. During the period of suspension, there were a host of positive and negative speculations offered as reason(s) for the suspension. On the night before, UKOG rose 18%.
Here, I would like to share with you my analysis:
1) Never believe in any speculations. Speculators are NOT privy to the company's reason(s)
2) UKOG's shares went up 18% prior to the suspension. Hence, any news before resumption of trading ought to be good.
3) Prior to the suspension there was no indication of an impending problem or issue which could damage the company's growth or prospects.
That is why it is important to know the company you invested in.
Today, UKOG announced that Schlumberger, a world renowned oil services company, estimated that the Upper Portland holds 16 million barrels of oil in place per sq mile whereas the Kimmeridge Clay holds 255 million barrels of oil in place. This works out to almost 15 billion barrels of oil in place in the licence area vs an earlier estimate by NUTECH which amounted to 8.5 billion barrels of oil in place.
This is indeed a huge upgrade of the resources. Still UKOG needs to conduct a flow test to estimate the amount oil recoverable from the Horse Hill area.
My disclosure: I am long UKOG.
Here, I would like to share with you my analysis:
1) Never believe in any speculations. Speculators are NOT privy to the company's reason(s)
2) UKOG's shares went up 18% prior to the suspension. Hence, any news before resumption of trading ought to be good.
3) Prior to the suspension there was no indication of an impending problem or issue which could damage the company's growth or prospects.
That is why it is important to know the company you invested in.
Today, UKOG announced that Schlumberger, a world renowned oil services company, estimated that the Upper Portland holds 16 million barrels of oil in place per sq mile whereas the Kimmeridge Clay holds 255 million barrels of oil in place. This works out to almost 15 billion barrels of oil in place in the licence area vs an earlier estimate by NUTECH which amounted to 8.5 billion barrels of oil in place.
This is indeed a huge upgrade of the resources. Still UKOG needs to conduct a flow test to estimate the amount oil recoverable from the Horse Hill area.
My disclosure: I am long UKOG.
Thursday, June 4, 2015
LGO 2014 FINANCIAL YEAR RESULTS
LGO Financial Year End 2014 Results:
Revenue increased 55.8% in 2014 vs 2013
Loss widened 89.8% in 2014 vs 2013
Current Ratio 0.56
Debt to Equity Ratio 0.51
Analysis of a small cap growth company is very different when comparing to other mid and large cap. More often than not, you can hardly expect any profit. This is because all earnings are reinvested into the business. LGO is not different.
Much of the profit decline has been due to Administrative Expenses and Depreciation.
Administrative Expenses include the settlement of a suit in 2014 amounting to 1.2 million Pounds. Also included is the payment to rig services provider for the drilling of 8 wells. In 2013 there were no drilling, only re-completion of existing wells.
LGO invested in 2 storage tanks in 2014 which increased the Depreciation charges for 2014.
I would expect LGO to improve its Current Ratio and bottom line 2015.
In the past, LGO would set off its debt through the placement of new shares, but this should stop in 2015 as they entered into an oil for debt swap with BNP Paribas.
Major improvements expected in 2015 vs 2014:
1) Lower cost of drilling and man days required per drill. This is due to the smaller Rig 70 which improved the drilling performance per well. Almost 40% savings per well.
2) Deployment of a 3 casing method vs the previous 2 casing method to improve well integrity and reduce high depletion rate among the wells. This will ensure the wells flow naturally over a longer period of time.
3) Production in 2015 is expected to increase by 1,400 bopd vs 2014 (200 bopd x 7 new wells).
4) The improvement in production will set off against the US2 million payment due to the previous vendor and licence holder of Goudron in the event production is maintained above 2,000 bopd over a 30 day period.
5) As production increases, the cost of Admin per barrel of oil is expected to decline drastically. Most of the Admin costs are fixed.
6) Inclusion of the new 4" pipeline, LACT meter and additional 5,000 storage tank to ensure continuous delivery of oil to Petrotrin. This will also improve the revenue stream and provide the infrastructure support for LGO to increase its production.
7) LGO will now embark on a continuous drilling programme with Pad 5 & 6 now under construction. Pad 6 will be drilled this year but production will likely be in January 2016. Application made to increase the number of wells from 30 to AT LEAST 60.
Besides the keypoints above, the much awaited CPR will be released in June 2015.
My disclosure: I am long LGO.
Revenue increased 55.8% in 2014 vs 2013
Loss widened 89.8% in 2014 vs 2013
Current Ratio 0.56
Debt to Equity Ratio 0.51
Analysis of a small cap growth company is very different when comparing to other mid and large cap. More often than not, you can hardly expect any profit. This is because all earnings are reinvested into the business. LGO is not different.
Much of the profit decline has been due to Administrative Expenses and Depreciation.
Administrative Expenses include the settlement of a suit in 2014 amounting to 1.2 million Pounds. Also included is the payment to rig services provider for the drilling of 8 wells. In 2013 there were no drilling, only re-completion of existing wells.
LGO invested in 2 storage tanks in 2014 which increased the Depreciation charges for 2014.
I would expect LGO to improve its Current Ratio and bottom line 2015.
In the past, LGO would set off its debt through the placement of new shares, but this should stop in 2015 as they entered into an oil for debt swap with BNP Paribas.
Major improvements expected in 2015 vs 2014:
1) Lower cost of drilling and man days required per drill. This is due to the smaller Rig 70 which improved the drilling performance per well. Almost 40% savings per well.
2) Deployment of a 3 casing method vs the previous 2 casing method to improve well integrity and reduce high depletion rate among the wells. This will ensure the wells flow naturally over a longer period of time.
3) Production in 2015 is expected to increase by 1,400 bopd vs 2014 (200 bopd x 7 new wells).
4) The improvement in production will set off against the US2 million payment due to the previous vendor and licence holder of Goudron in the event production is maintained above 2,000 bopd over a 30 day period.
5) As production increases, the cost of Admin per barrel of oil is expected to decline drastically. Most of the Admin costs are fixed.
6) Inclusion of the new 4" pipeline, LACT meter and additional 5,000 storage tank to ensure continuous delivery of oil to Petrotrin. This will also improve the revenue stream and provide the infrastructure support for LGO to increase its production.
7) LGO will now embark on a continuous drilling programme with Pad 5 & 6 now under construction. Pad 6 will be drilled this year but production will likely be in January 2016. Application made to increase the number of wells from 30 to AT LEAST 60.
Besides the keypoints above, the much awaited CPR will be released in June 2015.
My disclosure: I am long LGO.
Tuesday, June 2, 2015
PPHM NEWS RELEASE AFTER ASCO 2015
Following the ASCO Round table discussion held on 31 May, 2015, PPHM released the following updates:
Sunrise Phase III Trial
Completion of enrollment is anticipated by calendar year-end 2015.There will be two planned interim efficacy analyses which will be reviewed by the trial's Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC). The first interim analysis, which will be conducted when 33% of the targeted overall survival events reached, is for futility and the second interim analysis, for futility or superiority, will be conducted at 50% of events. As these analyses are event driven, the exact timing of each is unknown, however the company plans to provide updates as these events are reached.
What can we know from this? The Sunrise Phase III trial has been ongoing for 18 months now. It lends credence that the patients are surviving longer, surpassing the 33% target for futility. This means that there is a likelihood that the first look-in if it happens could be a deciding factor to end the trial and grant approval. Just my opinion of course.
Exploring Checkpoint Inhibitor Combinations For Lung Cancer
PPHM plans to initiate an open -label multi-centre, randomised PHase II Trial of the anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody nivolumab (Opdivo) vs nivolumab + Bavituximab in patients with previously treated locally advanced metastatic NSCLC. Enrollment will iclude patients with squamous and non-squamos NSCLC who have not received a prior PD-L1 or PD-! inhibitor.The primary endpoint of this trial will be overall response rate (ORR) with secondary endpoints including tumour response and duration, progression free survival, overall survival (OS) and safety.The trial is in the final stages of design and the details of which will be made available once details are completed. Trial initiation is anticipated in H2 2015.
My opinion. Nivolumab is a drug marketed by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY). Previously PPHM conducted a trial combining Yervoy + Bavituximab for advanced melanoma (a type of deadly Skin Cancer). Yervoy is also a BMY drug. The involvement of BMY drugs may give hint of a potential partnership perhaps? Just my opinion but it is an interesting prospect to consider.
Leveraging Positive data In Breast Cancer
PPHM plans to initiate a Phase II/III open-label trial of either docetaxel or paclitaxel with or without Bavituximab in patients with locally advanced or metastatic HER2 negative breast cancer. The primary endpoint for the for the Phase II trial will be ORR. Results from this trial are expected to inform decisions on future studies in breast cancer and add value to the overall programme. The initiation of this trial is anticipated in H2 2015.
Fiscal Year End Cash Position
As at 30 April 2015, PPHM has cash and equivalents of US$68 million.
Avid Bioservices' Expansion On Track And Strongly Positioned To Meet Demand
The new facility is anticipated to be ready for cGMP production of biotechnology prodcuts in July 2015.
My disclosure: I am long PPHM
Sunrise Phase III Trial
Completion of enrollment is anticipated by calendar year-end 2015.There will be two planned interim efficacy analyses which will be reviewed by the trial's Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC). The first interim analysis, which will be conducted when 33% of the targeted overall survival events reached, is for futility and the second interim analysis, for futility or superiority, will be conducted at 50% of events. As these analyses are event driven, the exact timing of each is unknown, however the company plans to provide updates as these events are reached.
What can we know from this? The Sunrise Phase III trial has been ongoing for 18 months now. It lends credence that the patients are surviving longer, surpassing the 33% target for futility. This means that there is a likelihood that the first look-in if it happens could be a deciding factor to end the trial and grant approval. Just my opinion of course.
Exploring Checkpoint Inhibitor Combinations For Lung Cancer
PPHM plans to initiate an open -label multi-centre, randomised PHase II Trial of the anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody nivolumab (Opdivo) vs nivolumab + Bavituximab in patients with previously treated locally advanced metastatic NSCLC. Enrollment will iclude patients with squamous and non-squamos NSCLC who have not received a prior PD-L1 or PD-! inhibitor.The primary endpoint of this trial will be overall response rate (ORR) with secondary endpoints including tumour response and duration, progression free survival, overall survival (OS) and safety.The trial is in the final stages of design and the details of which will be made available once details are completed. Trial initiation is anticipated in H2 2015.
My opinion. Nivolumab is a drug marketed by Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY). Previously PPHM conducted a trial combining Yervoy + Bavituximab for advanced melanoma (a type of deadly Skin Cancer). Yervoy is also a BMY drug. The involvement of BMY drugs may give hint of a potential partnership perhaps? Just my opinion but it is an interesting prospect to consider.
Leveraging Positive data In Breast Cancer
PPHM plans to initiate a Phase II/III open-label trial of either docetaxel or paclitaxel with or without Bavituximab in patients with locally advanced or metastatic HER2 negative breast cancer. The primary endpoint for the for the Phase II trial will be ORR. Results from this trial are expected to inform decisions on future studies in breast cancer and add value to the overall programme. The initiation of this trial is anticipated in H2 2015.
Fiscal Year End Cash Position
As at 30 April 2015, PPHM has cash and equivalents of US$68 million.
Avid Bioservices' Expansion On Track And Strongly Positioned To Meet Demand
The new facility is anticipated to be ready for cGMP production of biotechnology prodcuts in July 2015.
My disclosure: I am long PPHM
NAGACORP'S NET PROFIT ALERT
Nagacorp issued a Net Profit alert on 1 June, 2015 in anticipation that its H1 2015 Net Profit could surge and potentially exceed US$100 million. This is on the back of an upfront payment of US$40 million received pursuant to a JV with an electronic gaming machine operator.
My disclosure: I am long Nagacorp.
My disclosure: I am long Nagacorp.
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